Recent studies & articles are suggesting that a fall in the Canadian housing market is inevitable, due to the recent drop in oil prices. However these studies have the irritating habit of grouping together the Canadian market, as a whole. For those following the housing market of each province, we know that there is a glaring difference between them. Yes, in some cases, the decline in oil prices will maybe lower property values, however this is not true for Quebec.
The two provinces that are most affected in oil are Saskatchewan and Alberta, and they may undergo a slight adjustment. However that being said, Calgary and Edmonton have seen an increase in real estate transactions of about 10% and their prices have increased by 6% and 5%, respectively. So even if there were a slight correction in market, it would be balanced by the recent increase over a medium and long term horizon. In the contrary, the oil price drops of 1986, 1991 or 2008 were associated with recessions.
But Canada is not in a recession with a documented increase in GDP of approximately 2%. British Columbia, Ontario, Québec saw a record number of cranes due to a stable economy, independent of oil price fluctuations. It is understood that only a minority of countries can actually exploit oil at current prices; therefore an increase in price is to be expected. If we do not see a change within a year, sadly and unfortunately, a looming war is to be expected.
Patrice Groleau , owner & certified real estate broker
Patrice Groleau was born and raised in Quebec. He completed a Bachelor’s degree in human resources at the Université du Québec à Montréal, as well as a graduate degree in Entrepreneurship at the Université de Sherbrooke and in Advanced Project Management from McGill University in Montreal. Patrice Groleau obtained licenses in Risk Management from the Université du Québec à Montréal and Canadian Securities from the Canadian Securities Institute, as well as a Real Estate Agent degree and a Chartered Real Estate Broker’s & Agency Excecutive Officer (AEO) degree from the Collège de l’immobilier du Québec.
Member of the Organisme d’autoréglementation du courtage immobilier du Québec (OACIQ) and of the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board, Mr. Groleau also has a solid background in finance, having worked for several major financial institutions.